Thursday, November 13, 2008
State of everything today
Ladies and Gentleman, out there reading this blog right now - This will probably be my last financial blog, because I am working on economyandmore.blogspot.com - Check it out and comment...
I just went back through my past postings and realized, wow... I was right about just about everything going on in the economy. I made some dire predictions, and they were right. From the stock market falling, to real estate, to interest rates, and even unemployment. Well, why is that? It is simply because I speak the truth. I am not afraid of NOT making money based on my statements. In the financial markets, it's all based on fear and greed - the person to speak the truth is silenced in one way or another. But, the truth is that peoples actions and impulses are predictable and foreseeable. But, because people want to make money, they won't tell the truth. This factored in with the truth, it will always come through - the truth.
So, what is the truth today? People are losing alot of money. People have lost savings that they made over the past 5-7 years. People are scared for their financial security. Their spending patterns are changing because of this. Banks are being greedy - and aren't lending money. What is happening? The future will pan out like this. We are in a changing time. We are in a revolutionary period where people are going from spenders to savers. The reason being is because they have no more money to spend. Children are going to grow up in the next 10 years being more frugal than the generation just before that. Over the next 10-20 years, people won't spend like they used to and the economy won't grow like it once did. We are going to see massive deflation, prices will come down, but jobs will be hard to come by also.
You can tell the future by seeing the truth. Everything is a lie, but there is truth to every lie. And if you find that truth, you will see the future.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Truth of Mutual Funds
Okay, so let me break it down for you, whoever is reading this. Mutual Funds Suck. Yeah, and the buy and hold strategy is shit too. Why do you ask? Brokers are trained to say day trading isn't good. Even if you miss 1 up month out of 2 years of day trading, your returns will be much less than a buy and hold strategy. You know what, if you want to hear all the rhetoric, just go talk to Michael Hanson from Wells Fargo Investments. He is full of shit. So, why do these people say such things if it is stupid? Well, a buy and hold strategy is merely a marketing plan that was put in place to make the mutual fund company money. In fact, I truly believe it is risk free business, and it is one of the best businesses to start - hence all of the hedge funds that have come about.
Okay, back to mutual funds - So, you buy in, they charge... you hold, as they say to do, and they charge... So, let's look at it on the flip side of things... If you are to have a mutual fund company and merely try and gain assets, you charge, let's say a modest 3% to get into the fund - Right then and there, that is great money. Then, every year, based on this proliferation of information saying to buy and hold, you will then charge 1% a year... That means that every year, you will be making money off of the amount of money brought into that fund. So, then, the sales charge gives you the commission to your sales people and the rest is just gravy...
Okay, so let's use a real life example. Let's take Dreyfus Technology fund (DTGRX). Just to buy it, you are paying 5.75% - Then, to hold it, you are paying 1.42% PER YEAR - Let's say you hold it just for 3 years - You need to make 2.875% to break even. To keep up with inflation, you need to get almost 6%. And that's just to start making money - Still, after taxes, you are going to lose. But, let's flip it around again. DTGRX has a total of $267,350,000 invested. So, just to buy in, the mutual fund company has made $15,372,625 and keeps making $2,673,500. per year for doing nothing more than managing money...
Okay, so they need to make money by managing it, understandable... But, what does managing mean? Well, depends on if it is Tactically managed (Which most funds are NOT), or strategically managed. What does that mean? Tactically simply means that they do what is needed when is needed to manage the portfolio. Strategically sounds really cool, but it means they have a strategy put in place that is set by default. Meaning that they choose to do a punt, but the situation arises that they could do a fake punt pass - they won't, because they have planned to take the punt... In other words, they are set to principles that are preplanned.
Okay, so it doesn't seem too bad. They rebalance the portfolios 4 times a year, usually quarterly. But, what do they do in the mean time? Well, they're making huge profits... Okay, so for the lay person, mutual funds are good... They allow the ignorant to invest with minimal hands on and, afterall, you tip your waitress 20% - this is just 1.5% - Well, maybe I should open up a mutual fund company...
Thursday, April 10, 2008
All things have an inherent value that fluctuates with many variables. For example, a fast food place that is working has an inherent value – it is nearly never at 100% efficiency resulting in a 100% possible value. The resulting problem lies in the fact that the value is reliant upon those efficiencies. The risks involved are the employee problem, the structure problem, the services problem and the problems that limits efficiency for example the infrastructure problem. In the problem with the employee, it is linked to the fact that employees more often times than not have different agenda’s than that of management, where the structure problem is the management that is implemented have problems. The services problem is that the utililties used by and for the employees isn’t stream lined nor is it possible to stream line it. The infrastructure problem is simply the problem that is caused by the infrastructure being mismanaged and leading to huge inefficiencies that run down the entire leghnth of the management. This leads to greater efficiency problems and can only be fixed from the top down.
Because of this, all businesses have an intrinsic value. Depending on the industry, market conditions, and other external forces – a business is only worth so much. But, within the same industry, there are internal problems that make the businesses worth more or less based on certain aspects of what is spoken of from above. Analyzing the corporate structure and how these inefficiencies are managed can result in an arbitrage situation where you are able to restructure management and cause an increase in it’s intrinsic value.
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
I got a call the other day. It woke me up to the reality of the world. This call was no ordinary call. This was a call from the higher ups that I have spoken about once before. The call was to tell me that the bank needs more money. The bank is hurting for money, so regardless of your point of view on the economy and how the market will do - you must invest peoples money. By investing peoples money, a sales charge will therefore then be created and every year after that there will be a fee paid to the bank. Am I slacking in my numbers? Absolutely not. I have well over a million invested in this year alone. The problem is simply I am discouraging customers to put money into the stock market via mutual funds. I believe it is a great time to be liquid, or in short to medium term fixed income. There are theories that say not to time the market, that as long as you get in, that will be fine. However, I believe that there is no point to get in at a top when all of the clear indicators are saying the economy and the credit markets are tightening so much that the stock market is going to fall flat on it's face as all of the future potential revenue from corporations will dry up as the almighty spender begins to curtail it's spending by not making those purchases needed to support the economy. There are reasons why this is happening that I've written about before - but, it is getting VERY serious. So serious, the Federal Reserve is lowering it's target rate, now down to 4.25% - However, they are realizing this isn't doing anything, and are beginning to do something completely new by trying an auction to the banks for their money - to see how low the rate will go before banks begin to borrow to bolster the lending. The problem with the lending is that the risk is getting worse and worse and the banks have tightened their lending practices so much that the average person can't get a loan for a home. I am seeing this first hand.
So, now, back to my phone call. The problem that I had with the phone call is that I was told that I need to leave my opinions and advice to the side and begin selling regardless of my views - This I can understand. Afterall, I am in a position that is sales related. However, the problem lies in the fact that I can't bring myself to sell something that isn't worth the price they'll pay for it. I can now see how homes were selling for 400,000+ for a condo. (Notice I use the word were - they are dropping like a rock, and will continue to do so). The problem is that people don't care about one another. It's kill or be killed. The system is set up to take advantage of the poor and uneducated. The more uneducated a person is, the more likely they are to be taken advantage of. This could possibly be a reason why the public school system is going down the drain - the reason why there is no personal finance programs mandated in the public school system. The more ignorant one is, the more it is possible to take money from them. I think I've written about it before, but the entire system of going to high school with, "College Prepatory" classes teach you to go to college, get an education, and get a great job. Or, in other words, go to college - get in to debt - and then work for someones company because you feel so trapped by the debt you have you will then have to work for someone's business to help them make millions while you pay off those loans that are essentially are for a worthless piece of paper that gets you a mediocre job that barely pays for those loans - and then once you pay them off, it is pressured that you go to grad school to be competitive in the market and get a better position - but, let me reiterate. That is take on more debt so you can perfect your expertise so that you can be paid a little bit more to pay off those loans in order to make that business (owner) millions more while you are getting paid even less. Take those loans that you took out for school and plow them into a business that you would love to work at - not even that, just your dream, and you could possibly build your own business with all of those loans... But, taking on large amounts of debt is extremely risky.. right? Well, you're doing it with school...
Anyway, enough of that rant. But, on the other hand - The uneducated aren't proactive either. So, it's no wonder they get taken advantage of. I see hundreds of customers that are overdrawn on their accounts - and I try to teach them how not to do it... But they still do it. They must get that snickers bar at the checkout line... They must buy that scratch off lottery ticket... However, it's not just them. It is also everyday individuals that don't care to have a financial plan done. Why? They feel they are in control of their finances. Well, most of these people don't even have an IRA set up - They aren't saving for retirement nor are they ready. I am more ready than most of my customers, and I just started 2 years ago. So, why not take advantage of these ignorant, uneducated souls? They are asking for it. If I don't take advantage of them - there'll be another one that does and will profit immensely. So, why not help them, while getting a limited amount of their money, while the other person that would royally screw them (Real Estate Agent) ends up going out of business or not able to get that one customer I did? Afterall, the poor somehow always seem to stay poor. Why is it that public libraries seem to be in the poorer areas, and yet when you go inside, you don't see anyone except middle class individuals? Is it the education we give them, or is it that they do not want the education? Ignorance certainly is bliss, but the question remains - Do these people choose to be ignorant in order for others to take advantage of them, or is the system set up like that so that they have no hope because they don't even know?
These are the dilemmas that bother me. I am only one person, but can I save the ignorant and uneducated? Maybe I need to begin getting a share of this profit from the poor and uneducated. There are literally hundreds of millions of them, and there are only around 5 million or so multi-millionaires. Meaning, there is enough market share to take a bit from. Or, should I go the other route and increase the education and wealth of millions and take market share that way? Profit for myself, or help others profit?
Oh, and the next day after that conversation with that higher up, the DOW plummeted 300 points/2.5% - So, I guess I'm not too far off base.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
The Financial Markets are Melting
::: Transcribed from personal myspace blog account:::
It's happening - The mortgage market is now coming to a standstill, as the largest lender in the U.S. is about to file for bancruptcy protection. Will the Fed let that happen? We'll see...
Bottom line is, with CFC coming to a close, this will cause thousands to be laid off. The refinancing of a property is now coming to an end because it'll be near impossible to do. ARMs coming due will not be able to be refinanced and those people will walk away from their homes or get foreclosed on. All of those people that have used equity loans and lines to buy investment properties are going to see their properties cheaper than ever thought possible, and when you're upside down around the million dollar mark, it doesn't matter how good your credit is, you'll feel the strain. Soon, banks will see defaults on their A paper, banks will be at risk, laying people off left and right to salvage their financials, and this will lead into a huge meltdown of the world economy.
What I have predicted in the past is becoming more and more evident, but the scary thing is that it's playing out a whole lot faster than that I anticipated. I expect us to be in a recession by the middle of next year, and the depression to hit, obviously 3 periods after that. But, this is going to be bad with millions of people out of work, and major banks going under. This is because all of the financing that banks have taken up and incurred are going to be defaulted since these people are going to lose thier jobs and not pay. When it comes to survival, credit scores aren't a big deal.
In the end, it'll get better as the stronger currencies of the other countries around the world will help boulster our economy with exports increasing to levels not seen since the 60s. This will cause a manufactering boom, and keep people employed, but at substandard living. There won't be anymore families purchasing a half million dollar home on credit with stated income. It'll be renting a small apartment, if they used to be home owners, or owning a small home.
Granted, this is all speculation that the fed keeps interest rates where they are. Who knows... It may change! But, at this point, the roaring 00's are over! The teens will be known as the GD2.
Friday, August 3, 2007
I have been trying to figure out the starting point to my theories on wealth and the masses. I haven't come close to it yet, but I am closely examining the interworkings of society and what drives it and I have come up with new theories along with the overall - The fact that the economic cycles are in place to make the rich richer and the poor poorer and when someone is a threat to that status quo, they are either paid off and become one of them or are simply killed, as we saw with JFK and MLK Jr., and many others that we haven't heard of for this very reason, and which is the reason why I write on this blog, keep my profile private, and say what I say, because I have nor the power nor the money to be a threat, but is an easy kill, as no one would ever know my idelogies.
With my current thoughts, I have come to the conlclusion that CEO's and other top ranking executives are merely the generals in this battle. They are paid handsome subsities to control the wealth and power of those that I speak of, with no ends. The troops are you and I who are fighting this battle to attain as much money as possible in order to keep these people rich and powerful. Who are they? I Am still trying to figure out - read above. It wasn't until a certain time, which I am trying to pin point, that those people began to realize that they must appease the masses and put on a smoke and mirror show in order to make it so they are happy and content in the way things as to not entice a coup, rebellion, or any of the sort. This is most evident in the American society as we have more forms of entertainment than did anyone in the past. Romans used to have their shows in the coliseum, and many others have had their forms of entertainment. We have television, sports, etc, etc... and that is an excellent way to mask the facts that there are people controlling this aspect of our lives - And profit off the smoke and mirrors to conceal this identity. Small businesses are allowed to start up in order for the masses to feel a sort of empowerment as to appease the masses. When they get out of hand and people begin to think that they can make money and a life of their own, the status quo begins to break and that is when "inflation" or credit worthiness begins to deteiorate, and that's when it gets harder for people to start a business until a recession begins and people start losing their jobs and small businesses aren't able to profit because there aren't enough people with money - That's when the depression hits, which should be had every 60-80 years to clean up the people who think they don't need the system... Finally, the status quo is back in place and a whole new cycle begins of trying to have people stay happy by entertainment.
I recently began the theory that this ultimate starting point I speak of is inherently the shareholders of companies. Meaning, that everything makes sense, that the reason we push products and we do what we do is to increase shareholders values - which is true. But, then I realized that the stock market is merely a source of liquidity for these people that want to leverage themselves to make more money. Who profits from all of this? I am trying to figure this out. Who is in power? Why do I ask these questions - It's because the ultimate goal of any successful individual is power and money. You can't have one and not the other in order to be successful and be one of the elite that I try to find. Is Bill Gates one of these elite? I don't believe so, because he only has money. His power is limited to the extent of his wealth, and is limited to only his company. However, he has much influence on people and aspects of life.
Politics - I do want to get into, but the problem being is that my ideoligies will get me killed. It is not accepted to have these ideas. What must a person do in order to achieve a level of prosperity?
Thursday, July 5, 2007
Capitalism... Is it working?
::: Transcribed from personal myspace blog account:::
I'm trying to figure out if Capitalism is truly the way to go. As an economist, I try to look at short term and long term effects of decisions. Capitalism, by nature, allows people to choose the best products, the most convienient prices, and adds to competition between suppliers of such products. With the competition comes better products and yet greater innovation, as the competition keeps trying to, "one up", eachother. In a perfectly competitive enviroment, the greatest market share will lead to the greatest revenue base to expand operations in order to increase it's R&D to advance their technological advantage over their competitor.
Okay, I'm done writing, I lost interest in this subject, but I have a whole theory on this if anyone likes to talk economics/politics